Publications 2023

2022 2024 overview

Universal early warning signals of phase transitions in climate systems
Dylewsky, D., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Bury, T.M., Fletcher, C.G., Anand, M. & Bauch, C.T. (2023)
Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20 (201)[full text]

Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions
Grziwotz, F., Chang, C.W., Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H., Schwarzländer, M., Kamps, O., Heßler, M., Tokuda, I.T., Telschow, A. & Hsieh, C.H. (2023)
Science Advances 9 (1)[full text]

The Potential for Alternative Stable States in Food Webs Depends on Feedback Mechanism and Trait Diversity
Karatayev, V.A., Baskett, M.L. & van Nes, E.H. (2023)
American Naturalist 202 (3):260-275 [full text]

Quantifying the human cost of global warming
Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Abrams, J.F., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K.L., Dunn, R.R., Svenning, J.C. & Scheffer, M. (2023)
Nature Sustainability [full text]

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control
Lever, J.J., Van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M. & Bascompte, J. (2023)
Ecology Letters 26 (10):1765-1779 [full text]

Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Model to Assess Thermal Stress
Mangold-Döring, A., Baas, J., van den Brink, P.J., Focks, A. & van Nes, E.H. (2023)
Environmental Science and Technology 57 (50):21029-21037 [full text]

Safe and just Earth system boundaries
Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S.J., Abrams, J.F., Andersen, L.S., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S.E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T.M., Loriani, S., Liverman, D.M., Mohamed, A., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., Ospina, D., Prodani, K., Rammelt, C., Sakschewski, B., Scholtens, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Tharammal, T., van Vuuren, D., Verburg, P.H., Winkelmann, R., Zimm, C., Bennett, E.M., Bringezu, S., Broadgate, W., Green, P.A., Huang, L., Jacobson, L., Ndehedehe, C., Pedde, S., Rocha, J., Scheffer, M., Schulte-Uebbing, L., de Vries, W., Xiao, C., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zafra-Calvo, N. & Zhang, X. (2023)
Nature 619 (7968):102-111 [full text]

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests
Rotbarth, R., Van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M., Jepsen, J.U., Vindstad, O.P.L., Xu, C. & Holmgren, M. (2023)
Nature Communications 14 (1)[full text]

What do you mean by ‘tipping point’?
Scheffer, M. & Olde Rikkert, M.G.M. (2023)
Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde 167 [full text]

The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies
Scheffer, M., van Nes, E.H., Kemp, L., Kohler, T.A., Lenton, T.M. & Xu, C. (2023)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 120 (48)[full text]

Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events
Setty, S., Cramwinckel, M.J., van Nes, E.H., van de Leemput, I.A., Dijkstra, H.A., Lourens, L.J., Scheffer, M. & Sluijs, A. (2023)
Science Advances 9 (14)[full text]

Response diversity as a sustainability strategy
Walker, B., Crépin, A.S., Nyström, M., Anderies, J.M., Andersson, E., Elmqvist, T., Queiroz, C., Barrett, S., Bennett, E., Cardenas, J.C., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin, F.S., III, de Zeeuw, A., Fischer, J., Folke, C., Levin, S., Nyborg, K., Polasky, S., Segerson, K., Seto, K.C., Scheffer, M., Shogren, J.F., Tavoni, A., van den Bergh, J., Weber, E.U. & Vincent, J.R. (2023)
Nature Sustainability 6 (6):621-629 [full text]

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